Home

A003M1: The Chance of Life?

Details

Written by: Dave Hartsinck

Category: News

Published: 27 January 2026

Hits: 47

The Chance of Life?

Re-edited: 08-01-2026 

Addressing: my dear friend J.D. - and everyone else that needs saving

As you know I am a Christian, and I know you are a man of the world. But so was I. The reason I write you this letter is because things are about to happen in this world and there isn't a whole lot of time left. Because Christians are only in the business to save people from eternal damnation, I would have failed in my duty if I did not try to save my good friend JD. 

Now I know the looks on peoples faces when I talk about God, they are immediate repelled or attacked. What I am about to tell you, will not have impact on your own conviction, because my words have no power. Only the words of God have power in you, as long as you have ears that want to hear. My goal with what I will tell you is that you merely open your mind for research, so you may want to listen later on to the words of power of our Lord.

The first thing you need to do is to open your mind on a scientific level because modern man uses science in mostly for his own convictions.

If there was ever a time that there was nothing, there would still be nothing. Let that sink deep in your brain, because secular science wants you to believe that something comes out of nothing, which is in itself unscientific and absolutely ridiculous. Here is where a lot of seculars scientists and philosophers become believers in things that are not. 

If there ever was a time that there was something, then there was always something. As we know - because we exist and the universe exists, there is something. And since there is always cause and effect - there was always something. Which points to eternity - something with no beginning. And because there is cause and effect - the universe did not came out of nothing. But it is not the universe that was eternal, as it is temporal, so there must be something else.

Not bad for just a start? But this is certainly not something I thought of myself. I picked this up from a sermon of R.C. Sproul, one of my favorite preachers. 

Besides eternity, which exists as proof because we exist, there is the question of life. And now we get to point where we can go in all directions. But lets put it on a mathematical display. Using a simple chance formula:

Chance of Life (Cl) = Chance of creation by Intelligence + Chance of creation by Nature => Clife = Cintelligence + Cnature

So we have an equation based on chance: Clife = Cintelligence + Cnature = 1

There is no other chance to put in here as another possibility. Our big trouble now is how approach this. I cannot create a chance for intelligence. But I can say: Cintelligence = Clife - Cnature, thus the chance of being created by intelligence is Clife - Cnature =  Cintelligence. If I focus on Cnature, then I can get to the point on how much chance there is of creating a cell by nature. 

We have to think of a cell. And probably a very simple one. Some of the chances you can think of:

1. Chance - you need all the right materials (molecules) in the right please
2. Chance - there may not be any materials disruptive to the making of the cell
3. Chance - the environment temperature must be right
4. Chance - all chemical reactions must be in the right order 
5. Chance - all the basic building blocks must be made in the right order, and be created in the right order
6. Chance - all cellular network lanes have to be in place in order for the nucleus to be communicating with ribosomes (protein factories)
7. Chance - for reproduction, so there must be food and no hostile environment. 
8. Chance... the cell encoding...

I am no biologist but a cell is very complex. The nucleus has to be in it's own nucleus membrane and positioned in the cell membrane. And there are of course items in the cell that need to be there too like ribosomes and cell plasma etc.... 

All nice and well, but this I cannot compute in a way that I know. But what we can do is to look at DNA. DNA is a program. Like code. It needs to be in the right order to make any sense. To make this work you need the right combination of a set of proteins in order to get some sensible code. Let's take for example one of the most simple cells that are available today. With only 438 coded genes. Each gene consists of a trinucleotide or codon, some combination of 3 involving A-U-G-C-nucleotides. And there are for each codon 64 different proteins. 3 are used as stop signals. So lets not calculate these. 

Actually you have here a dice with 64 sides and where 3 of 64 have the same value or function. But I'll simplify it and just use 61 sides. So to encode a super simple cell with 438 coded genes - I hope I am doing this right... we can quickly now calculate the chance for the right program - because it has to be in the right order. 

For example we have simple program and we need a dice with 6 sides, and we need to throw 4, 2, and 1, the chance of that happening is: 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6: that is (1/6)^3 = 0,004629629... This is saying the chance that happening is 1 : 216 times. That same way of calculating is also needed for the cell program.

In this case we need (1/61)^438 = 1,0605 10^-782; this says that there is a chance of 1 on 9,429 10^781 - of this ever happening. So that is a number we don't even have name for. To give you an idea - the max we can reach with the windows calculator is (1/61)^ 5600, Then you get to a number that has ten thousand zeros behind the comma. Anything smaller like (1/61)^ 5601 generates an overflow.

We can also take a look of what is needed for the correct human programming - a multi cell organism. We have about 1 billion codons. So now we have this same thing going on and then it kind of looks like this (1/61)^1000000000 = infinitely small. Not even computers know this number - nothing in any science uses these numbers.  

If you have an ant - its genes vary between 13000 and 27000 genes. Also that program has to be in order. So if you want to have the chance for having a human and an ant (because there are humans and ants) you'd be calculating:

(1/61)^1000000000 x (1/61)^13000 =  (1/61)^1000013000  is again infinitely infinitely small. So the more correct programming we have (like on earth) the smaller the chances get. Even (1/61)^13000 does not register on any calculator. This goes beyond astronomical. 

To make it even more interesting, scientist always have some eureka feeling if they see the bases for amino acids which are needed for the building block for life. But really we also need to have the chemical reactions to make proteins from amino acids. And of course we need all 61 (+ the 3 stops). Where in there universe is that fabricated? All of them together? 

So we do seem to be unbelievably lucky that all of those chances come true right on this planet producing life in abundance - all with the right programming. Not just humans an ants! Really - if it were only ants, I would even not believe it. But what would be their food? Oh, of course that was there too! But wait a minute, don't you need male and female - that's different programming. How did that happen?

Chicken & the egg story

But there is more. There are proteins lets call that X, that cannot be made with the help of other proteins Y, but that other protein Y needs protein X in order to be made - yet both exist and science cannot explain it - just like the Chicken and the Egg. 

Reasonable doubt

In order to validate if these chances are indeed viable then we need a setting in which we can calculate this. And we have to look at the Universe. We have learned in this age that our sun is very kind to its solar system. It is not hyper active or have sudden streaks like brown dwarfs. So you need a sun like ours (Sol) that is not that active. There are not many of those around according to astronomers. If you discover a Sol-like sun then you need a planet in the goldilocks zone or habitable zone. Then you need a planet with water and a very rich set of chemicals like earth has.

Also here you see the chances of that happening grow smaller. So in our case we make assumptions like that we have much more than there is in reality, and if that doesn't work out, then it least we gave it a chance. Lets get to the numbers:

• There are around 2 trillion galaxies: 2000.000.000.000
• An average galaxy has about 100.000.000.000 stars
• We take 1 per thousand - of that - (way too high) - and we say these stars have an Earth type planet or moon in the goldilocks zone: 100.000.000 (1 10^8)earths per galaxy. 
• That would mean we have in total 2 10^12 * 1 10^8 = 2 10^20 Earth-type planets (in the goldilocks zone and rich in chemicals).
• Let us assume that each planet (2 10^20) as each second (again way too high) a chance to do something about the programming of a human, then how many years would take to crack it?
  • 24 * 365 = 8760 (hours) - total hours in a year.
  • 3600 x 8760 = 31.356.000 seconds in one year.
  • In each year there are 31.356.000 * 2 10^20 = 6.2712 10^27 attempts per year.
  • For the cracking the human code I can only use the maximum number on my (Windows) calculator in order to be able to calculate. Instead of (1/61)^1000000000 I'll have to use: (1/61)^5600. Which means a part of the human body is correctly assembled, there is a factor 1 10^9 / 5600 = 178571 involved here.
  • To be able to set the number of attempts like a 6 sided dice, any chance is 1/6, and to put in (1/6)^-1 = 6 it is a chance of 1 : 6, the same I do for:
    • ((1/61)^5600)-1 => which gives: 1 : 7,0319 10^9997. Lets put the average on to hit the jackpot halfway: 7,0319 10^9997 / 2 = 3,5159 10^9997
  • This means it would take =  3,5159 10^9997 / 6.2712 10^27 = 5,6065 10^9969 years
  • The universe has an estimated lifespan of 1 E+78 years, and the current secular view says we only did some 13 10^12 years in the current state of the universe. 
  • Now we can calculate if this is a viable chance by checking if things can happen in a reasonable time span:  5,6065 10^9969 / 10^78 = 5,6065 10^9891, this means the universe would passed 5,6065 10^9891 times already and maybe you have partly the programming right. So nothing really happens in millions of years or trillions of years...

My conclusion 

The calculation shows, even with the best assumed conditions - that are far from real, that there is no chance whatsoever in order to get the human programming partly right. A viable chance would be that it could occur in a reasonable fashion, like in the current life time of the universe. Because we are already here. But even with the best options with 2 10^20 attempts per second! There is still no chance. The universe would have already evaporated an unimaginable 5,6065 10^9891 times - for just a small part of the human programming. 

Even if every star in the universe would have an Earth-type planet it still would not happen. The equation would then be: 3,5159 10^9997 / 6.2712 10^30  = 5,6064 10^9966 years, and the universe would have passed 

And for one of the simplest single cell organisms 9,429 10^781 -> average attempts: 9,429 10^781 / 2 = 4,745 10^781 =>  devided by attempts per year: 4,745 10^781  / 6.2712 10^+30 = 7,5663 10^750 years => the universe would have passed: 7,5663 10^750 / 1 10^78 = 7,5663 10^672 times.

Life on earth is in abundance all of these have to have the correct programming, and this makes this place... Earth... totally impossible, unless:

Clife = Cintelligence + Cnature =  1 + 0 = Clife = Cintelligence

This is why I call seculars "believers". Life and the universe did not come into existence just like that, there was a cause, and the cause was a great intelligence, this is God. No doubt about it. 

What about evolution theory?

Upon further reflection - the evolution theory states that all life in its different forms have mutated somehow into newer lifeforms. You hear stuff like, what you don't need you loose. But this theory was invented by someone who had no idea what DNA was. So why people are still on with this theory, I do not understand. Random changes in the programming of cell is mostly devastating. And that is natural. But new species and stuff. That was all preprogrammed. That after generations you get new combinations of dominant and recessive genes and get new species. That is the best explanation because intelligence was responsible for generating new species. And then there are no flaws. Not based on chance.

Darwin had not the least bit notion that any lifeform needs information to be created. But today we do know. So don't get into the evolution theory - because it is far from scientific. Nature is dumb, but the Creator, now He is the smartest of all. Amen.